In 2021-22, Motive International was subcontracted by a large business prime contract holder to design and build an Atrocity Prevention (AP) tabletop exercise (TTX) for the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor (State/DRL). Delivered to State/DRL in September 2022, the TTX Motive developed today serves as the primary mechanism to fulfill the State Department’s Congressional mandate to train U.S. officials in AP as per the Eli Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act of 2018. Through immersive learning that measurably translates to real-world AP impacts, this project demonstrates Motive’s mastery harnessing the power of TTXs to advance our mission to mitigate conflict and bolster global stability.
Opening a Conversation About Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS)
Artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, and related emerging technologies are reshaping how policymakers and strategists think about national security, strategic stability, and conflict mitigation. These emerging technologies offer the prospect of exponentially faster and more accurate analysis and decision-making, more secure communications, more resilient networks, more precise and cost-effective application of resources, and more comprehensive understanding of the environment in which an individual, company, or government operates. Mastering the development and deployment of these technologies would dramatically enhance a country’s military, economic, and diplomatic capabilities, which is why most countries are rushing to deepen their understanding of AI and expand research and development in AI-related applications.
While some of these technologies are thought to be years away from widespread practical application -– for example, quantum technology or biotechnology for human enhancement – others like AI and machine learning are already being used today in almost all facets of life, including national security. One of the most significant new technologies impacting U.S. national security and the U.S. Department of Defense’s assessment of current and future threats is AI-based autonomous decision-making and its potential use in lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS), defined as weapons that are designed to independently select and engage targets without the need for human control. [1] LAWS present us with a thought-provoking array of problem-sets, as the technology is advancing far faster than U.S. policymaking and international diplomatic negotiations can keep pace. Several dozen countries and over 100 non-governmental organizations are demanding that the international community agree under UN auspices to ban LAWS because of ethical concerns over algorithms making lethal decisions autonomously. But U.S. state competitors like China and Russia, not to mention potential non-state adversaries, are already developing and exporting potentially autonomous weapon systems. The incoming Biden Administration will soon be confronted with important decision points about the USG’s R&D, deployment, and potential use of LAWS in combat, the implications of U.S. competitors and adversaries doing the same, and whether this category of weapons and technologies should face more rigorous scrutiny and oversight by an international treaty or agreement.
As a social enterprise deeply committed to mitigating conflict and enhancing stability and sustainability around the globe, Motive International recognizes the urgency of helping policymakers and strategists better understand both the opportunities and threats that LAWS pose to US national security and to regional and global conflict mitigation. Motive is launching a new initiative to help U.S. policymakers, strategists, and other stakeholders better understand the technical, policy, operational, diplomatic, and ethical dimensions that LAWS present, identify gaps in understanding, and frame the policy and operational choices decision-makers will need to consider in the months and years ahead to ensure these technologies promote rather than undermine global peace and stability.
As we develop this initiative, Motive is pleased to recommend to our community of interest the following key reports and resources related to LAWS and related technologies that are shaping how we are thinking about this important topic:
Overviews
“Defense Primer: U.S. Policy on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems”, Congressional Research Service, December 2020
“Autonomous weapons are a game-changer”, The Economist, January 2018
U.S. (DOD and State Department) Policy and NATO Perspectives
“AI Principles: Recommendations on the Ethical Use of Artificial Intelligence by the Department of Defense”, Defense Innovation Board, October 2019
“Conducting Article 36 Legal Reviews for Lethal Autonomous Weapons”, Jared Cochrane, Journal of Science Policy & Governance, April 2020
Statement by the U.S. Delegation to the UN CCW Group of Government Experts (GGE), March 2019
US Government Response to UN CCW GGE Virtual Dialogue on LAWS
NATO: Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040: Exploring the S&T Edge
NATO: “Autonomous Systems: Issues for Defence Policymakers”
UN Views and Diplomatic Discussions
“International Discussions Concerning Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems”, Congressional Research Service, October 2020
The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) Report on “Unlocking the Black Box” of autonomous decision-making
Report of the 2019 session of the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) on Emerging Technologies in the Area of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems, September 2019
Think Tank Reports on LAWS Development and Risks
“Redefining Human Control: Lessons from the Battlefield for Autonomous Weapons”, Center for Naval Analyses, March 2018
Who’s Prone to Drone? A Global Time-Series Analysis of Armed Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Proliferation, Michael Horowitz, October 2020
The Risks of Autonomous Weapons Systems for Crisis Stability and Conflict Escalation in Future U.S.-Russia Confrontations, Burgess Laird, June 2020, RAND blog
NGO Argument to Ban LAWS
“Human Rights Watch (HRW) argument in favor of a Treaty to Ban LAWS” June 2020
A Pathway to Systemic Stability: Applying Motive’s Transforming Crisis Systems (TCS) to Colombia’s Venezuelan Migrant Crisis
The current mass exodus of Venezuelans fleeing violence, economic collapse, and political instability in their home country is the largest migratory movement in Latin American history. Desperate to identify more effective and holistic policy and programmatic options to address the Venezuelan Migrant crisis, stakeholders in the region have expressed a need for a systems-level analysis to inform better strategies. This need inspired our team to conduct desk-based and in-country research relying on the rigorous and participatory Transforming Crisis Systems (TCS) approach.
The Power of Civ-Mil Partnerships in Fragile State Development: A CSIS Panel Discussion Featuring Motive CEO Morgan Keay
In May 2017, Motive CEO Morgan Keay was a featured panelist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) at an event entitled “The Role of Multi-Sector Partnerships in the New Development Era.” CSIS hosted this half-day event at the start of the Trump Administration when U.S. foreign assistance budgets faced significant cuts. The panel Morgan spoke on was asked to explore creative options to better leverage capital – financial or otherwise – through cross-sector partnerships, specifically in conflict-affected and fragile states.
Opening her remarks with the statement, “Conflict affects all sectors of society and therefore takes all sectors of society to address." Morgan confronted an idea considered to be heretical by many in the international development and diplomacy communities: expanded partnerships with the military can advance development and humanitarian goals. To make the case, Morgan offered a story about a real-world case study: a World Bank-funded road construction project through the heart of extremist-affected territory in West Africa’s Lake Chad Basin. This example illustrates what happened when local civil society, the host country’s military, and the U.S. military came together around a violence-plagued infrastructure project to transform human security in the region.
Social Contracts on NATO’s Front Line: Motive’s SCAT Helps Reveal Policy Dilemmas and Practical Opportunities
In April and May of 2019, a team of Motive International experts composed of Dr. Salamah Magnuson, Morgan Keay and Kimberly Metcalf conducted an investigation of societal dynamics in Estonia through in-country field research focused on social cohesion and national security. The purpose of this initiative was to apply Motive’s Social Contract Assessment Tool (SCAT), a framework designed to identify and characterize social institutions and the sources of legitimacy that underpin them in transitioning or threatened societies in order to inform policies, plans and activities to mitigate threats and promote stability.